Not only don't we know, but we hardly KNOW we don't know

From Reuters:

Congress report faults U.S. intelligence on Iran
Wed Aug 23, 2006
By Richard Cowan

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The U.S. intelligence community is ill-prepared to assess Iran's nuclear weapons capabilities and its intentions for developing weapons of mass destruction, a congressional report said on Wednesday.

Noting "significant gaps in our knowledge and understanding of the various areas of concern about Iran," the House Intelligence Committee staff report questioned whether the United States could even effectively engage in talks with Tehran on ways to diffuse tensions."

This is what happens when you have an administration that views "engagement" as a reward for obeying a demand on pain of death, rather than as the means to attaining the requested outcome.

The only thing more discouraging than the U.S. finding itself in this situation 3+ years into the Iraq debacle, is that, thanks to BushCo's enthusiasm for its famous "One Percent Doctrine," the likelihood that any lessons have been learned is nil.